Why Are Autism Rates Steadily Rising?
Stefania Sterling was just 21 when she had her son, Charlie. She was young and healthy, with no genetic issues apparent in either her or her husband's family, so she expected Charlie to be typical.
"It is surprising that the prevalence of a significant disorder like autism has risen so consistently over a relatively brief period."
It wasn't until she went to a Mommy and Me music class when he was one, and she saw all the other one-year-olds walking, that she realized how different her son was. He could barely crawl, didn't speak, and made no eye contact. By the time he was three, he was diagnosed as being on the lower functioning end of the autism spectrum.
She isn't sure why it happened – and researchers, too, are still trying to understand the basis of the complex condition. Studies suggest that genes can act together with influences from the environment to affect development in ways that lead to Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). But rates of ASD are rising dramatically, making the need to figure out why it's happening all the more urgent.
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Indeed, the CDC's latest autism report, released last week, which uses 2016 data, found that the prevalence of ASD in four-year-old children was one in 64 children, or 15.6 affected children per 1,000. That's more than the 14.1 rate they found in 2014, for the 11 states included in the study. New Jersey, as in years past, was the highest, with 25.3 per 1,000, compared to Missouri, which had just 8.8 per 1,000.
The rate for eight-year-olds had risen as well. Researchers found the ASD prevalence nationwide was 18.5 per 1,000, or one in 54, about 10 percent higher than the 16.8 rate found in 2014. New Jersey, again, was the highest, at one in 32 kids, compared to Colorado, which had the lowest rate, at one in 76 kids. For New Jersey, that's a 175 percent rise from the baseline number taken in 2000, when the state had just one in 101 kids.
"It is surprising that the prevalence of a significant disorder like autism has risen so consistently over a relatively brief period," said Walter Zahorodny, an associate professor of pediatrics at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, who was involved in collecting the data.
The study echoed the findings of a surprising 2011 study in South Korea that found 1 in every 38 students had ASD. That was the the first comprehensive study of autism prevalence using a total population sample: A team of investigators from the U.S., South Korea, and Canada looked at 55,000 children ages 7 to 12 living in a community in South Korea and found that 2.64 percent of them had some level of autism.
Searching for Answers
Scientists can't put their finger on why rates are rising. Some say it's better diagnosis. That is, it's not that more people have autism. It's that we're better at detecting it. Others attribute it to changes in the diagnostic criteria. Specifically, the May 2013 update of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5 -- the standard classification of mental disorders -- removed the communication deficit from the autism definition, which made more children fall under that category. Cynical observers believe physicians and therapists are handing out the diagnosis more freely to allow access to services available only to children with autism, but that are also effective for other children.
Alycia Halladay, chief science officer for the Autism Science Foundation in New York, said she wishes there were just one answer, but there's not. While she believes the rising ASD numbers are due in part to factors like better diagnosis and a change in the definition, she does not believe that accounts for the entire rise in prevalence. As for the high numbers in New Jersey, she said the state has always had a higher prevalence of autism compared to other states. It is also one of the few states that does a good job at recording cases of autism in its educational records, meaning that children in New Jersey are more likely to be counted compared to kids in other states.
"Not every state is as good as New Jersey," she said. "That accounts for some of the difference compared to elsewhere, but we don't know if it's all of the difference in prevalence, or most of it, or what."
"What we do know is that vaccinations do not cause autism."
There is simply no defined proven reason for these increases, said Scott Badesch, outgoing president and CEO of the Autism Society of America.
"There are suggestions that it is based on better diagnosis, but there are also suggestions that the incidence of autism is in fact increasing due to reasons that have yet been determined," he said, adding, "What we do know is that vaccinations do not cause autism."
Zahorodny, the pediatrics professor, believes something is going on beyond better detection or evolving definitions.
"Changes in awareness and shifts in how children are identified or diagnosed are relevant, but they only take you so far in accounting for an increase of this magnitude," he said. "We don't know what is driving the surge in autism recorded by the ADDM Network and others."
He suggested that the increase in prevalence could be due to non-genetic environmental triggers or risk factors we do not yet know about, citing possibilities including parental age, prematurity, low birth rate, multiplicity, breech presentation, or C-section delivery. It may not be one, but rather several factors combined, he said.
"Increases in ASD prevalence have affected the whole population, so the triggers or risks must be very widely dispersed across all strata," he added.
There are studies that find new risk factors for ASD almost on a daily basis, said Idan Menashe, assistant professor in the Department of Health at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, the fastest growing research university in Israel.
"There are plenty of studies that find new genetic variants (and new genes)," he said. In addition, various prenatal and perinatal risk factors are associated with a risk of ASD. He cited a study his university conducted last year on the relationship between C-section births and ASD, which found that exposure to general anesthesia may explain the association.
Whatever the cause, health practitioners are seeing the consequences in real time.
"People say rates are higher because of the changes in the diagnostic criteria," said Dr. Roseann Capanna-Hodge, a psychologist in Ridgefield, CT. "And they say it's easier for children to get identified. I say that's not the truth and that I've been doing this for 30 years, and that even 10 years ago, I did not see the level of autism that I do see today."
Sure, we're better at detecting autism, she added, but the detection improvements have largely occurred at the low- to mid- level part of the spectrum. The higher rates of autism are occurring at the more severe end, in her experience.
A Polarizing Theory
Among the more controversial risk factors scientists are exploring is the role environmental toxins may play in the development of autism. Some scientists, doctors and mental health experts suspect that toxins like heavy metals, pesticides, chemicals, or pollution may interrupt the way genes are expressed or the way endocrine systems function, manifesting in symptoms of autism. But others firmly resist such claims, at least until more evidence comes forth. To date, studies have been mixed and many have been more associative than causative.
"Today, scientists are still trying to figure out whether there are other environmental changes that can explain this rise, but studies of this question didn't provide any conclusive answer," said Menashe, who also serves as the scientific director of the National Autism Research Center at BGU.
"It's not everything that makes Charlie. He's just like any other kid."
That inconclusiveness has not dissuaded some doctors from taking the perspective that toxins do play a role. "Autism rates are rising because there is a mismatch between our genes and our environment," said Julia Getzelman, a pediatrician in San Francisco. "The majority of our evolution didn't include the kinds of toxic hits we are experiencing. The planet has changed drastically in just the last 75 years –- it has become more and more polluted with tens of thousands of unregulated chemicals being used by industry that are having effects on our most vulnerable."
She cites BPA, an industrial chemical that has been used since the 1960s to make certain plastics and resins. A large body of research, she says, has shown its impact on human health and the endocrine system. BPA binds to our own hormone receptors, so it may negatively impact the thyroid and brain. A study in 2015 was the first to identify a link between BPA and some children with autism, but the relationship was associative, not causative. Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration maintains that BPA is safe at the current levels occurring in food, based on its ongoing review of the available scientific evidence.
Michael Mooney, President of St. Louis-based Delta Genesis, a non-profit organization that treats children struggling with neurodevelopmental delays like autism, suspects a strong role for epigenetics, which refers to changes in how genes are expressed as a result of environmental influences, lifestyle behaviors, age, or disease states.
He believes some children are genetically predisposed to the disorder, and some unknown influence or combination of influences pushes them over the edge, triggering epigenetic changes that result in symptoms of autism.
For Stefania Sterling, it doesn't really matter how or why she had an autistic child. That's only one part of Charlie.
"It's not everything that makes Charlie," she said. "He's just like any other kid. He comes with happy moments. He comes with sad moments. Just like my other three kids."
One day in recent past, scientists at Columbia University’s Creative Machines Lab set up a robotic arm inside a circle of five streaming video cameras and let the robot watch itself move, turn and twist. For about three hours the robot did exactly that—it looked at itself this way and that, like toddlers exploring themselves in a room full of mirrors. By the time the robot stopped, its internal neural network finished learning the relationship between the robot’s motor actions and the volume it occupied in its environment. In other words, the robot built a spatial self-awareness, just like humans do. “We trained its deep neural network to understand how it moved in space,” says Boyuan Chen, one of the scientists who worked on it.
For decades robots have been doing helpful tasks that are too hard, too dangerous, or physically impossible for humans to carry out themselves. Robots are ultimately superior to humans in complex calculations, following rules to a tee and repeating the same steps perfectly. But even the biggest successes for human-robot collaborations—those in manufacturing and automotive industries—still require separating the two for safety reasons. Hardwired for a limited set of tasks, industrial robots don't have the intelligence to know where their robo-parts are in space, how fast they’re moving and when they can endanger a human.
Over the past decade or so, humans have begun to expect more from robots. Engineers have been building smarter versions that can avoid obstacles, follow voice commands, respond to human speech and make simple decisions. Some of them proved invaluable in many natural and man-made disasters like earthquakes, forest fires, nuclear accidents and chemical spills. These disaster recovery robots helped clean up dangerous chemicals, looked for survivors in crumbled buildings, and ventured into radioactive areas to assess damage.
Now roboticists are going a step further, training their creations to do even better: understand their own image in space and interact with humans like humans do. Today, there are already robot-teachers like KeeKo, robot-pets like Moffin, robot-babysitters like iPal, and robotic companions for the elderly like Pepper.
But even these reasonably intelligent creations still have huge limitations, some scientists think. “There are niche applications for the current generations of robots,” says professor Anthony Zador at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory—but they are not “generalists” who can do varied tasks all on their own, as they mostly lack the abilities to improvise, make decisions based on a multitude of facts or emotions, and adjust to rapidly changing circumstances. “We don’t have general purpose robots that can interact with the world. We’re ages away from that.”
Robotic spatial self-awareness – the achievement by the team at Columbia – is an important step toward creating more intelligent machines. Hod Lipson, professor of mechanical engineering who runs the Columbia lab, says that future robots will need this ability to assist humans better. Knowing how you look and where in space your parts are, decreases the need for human oversight. It also helps the robot to detect and compensate for damage and keep up with its own wear-and-tear. And it allows robots to realize when something is wrong with them or their parts. “We want our robots to learn and continue to grow their minds and bodies on their own,” Chen says. That’s what Zador wants too—and on a much grander level. “I want a robot who can drive my car, take my dog for a walk and have a conversation with me.”
Columbia scientists have trained a robot to become aware of its own "body," so it can map the right path to touch a ball without running into an obstacle, in this case a square.
Jane Nisselson and Yinuo Qin/ Columbia Engineering
Today’s technological advances are making some of these leaps of progress possible. One of them is the so-called Deep Learning—a method that trains artificial intelligence systems to learn and use information similar to how humans do it. Described as a machine learning method based on neural network architectures with multiple layers of processing units, Deep Learning has been used to successfully teach machines to recognize images, understand speech and even write text.
Trained by Google, one of these language machine learning geniuses, BERT, can finish sentences. Another one called GPT3, designed by San Francisco-based company OpenAI, can write little stories. Yet, both of them still make funny mistakes in their linguistic exercises that even a child wouldn’t. According to a paper published by Stanford’s Center for Research on Foundational Models, BERT seems to not understand the word “not.” When asked to fill in the word after “A robin is a __” it correctly answers “bird.” But try inserting the word “not” into that sentence (“A robin is not a __”) and BERT still completes it the same way. Similarly, in one of its stories, GPT3 wrote that if you mix a spoonful of grape juice into your cranberry juice and drink the concoction, you die. It seems that robots, and artificial intelligence systems in general, are still missing some rudimentary facts of life that humans and animals grasp naturally and effortlessly.
How does one give robots a genome? Zador has an idea. We can’t really equip machines with real biological nucleotide-based genes, but we can mimic the neuronal blueprint those genes create.
It's not exactly the robots’ fault. Compared to humans, and all other organisms that have been around for thousands or millions of years, robots are very new. They are missing out on eons of evolutionary data-building. Animals and humans are born with the ability to do certain things because they are pre-wired in them. Flies know how to fly, fish knows how to swim, cats know how to meow, and babies know how to cry. Yet, flies don’t really learn to fly, fish doesn’t learn to swim, cats don’t learn to meow, and babies don’t learn to cry—they are born able to execute such behaviors because they’re preprogrammed to do so. All that happens thanks to the millions of years of evolutions wired into their respective genomes, which give rise to the brain’s neural networks responsible for these behaviors. Robots are the newbies, missing out on that trove of information, Zador argues.
A neuroscience professor who studies how brain circuitry generates various behaviors, Zador has a different approach to developing the robotic mind. Until their creators figure out a way to imbue the bots with that information, robots will remain quite limited in their abilities. Each model will only be able to do certain things it was programmed to do, but it will never go above and beyond its original code. So Zador argues that we have to start giving robots a genome.
How does one do that? Zador has an idea. We can’t really equip machines with real biological nucleotide-based genes, but we can mimic the neuronal blueprint those genes create. Genomes lay out rules for brain development. Specifically, the genome encodes blueprints for wiring up our nervous system—the details of which neurons are connected, the strength of those connections and other specs that will later hold the information learned throughout life. “Our genomes serve as blueprints for building our nervous system and these blueprints give rise to a human brain, which contains about 100 billion neurons,” Zador says.
If you think what a genome is, he explains, it is essentially a very compact and compressed form of information storage. Conceptually, genomes are similar to CliffsNotes and other study guides. When students read these short summaries, they know about what happened in a book, without actually reading that book. And that’s how we should be designing the next generation of robots if we ever want them to act like humans, Zador says. “We should give them a set of behavioral CliffsNotes, which they can then unwrap into brain-like structures.” Robots that have such brain-like structures will acquire a set of basic rules to generate basic behaviors and use them to learn more complex ones.
Currently Zador is in the process of developing algorithms that function like simple rules that generate such behaviors. “My algorithms would write these CliffsNotes, outlining how to solve a particular problem,” he explains. “And then, the neural networks will use these CliffsNotes to figure out which ones are useful and use them in their behaviors.” That’s how all living beings operate. They use the pre-programmed info from their genetics to adapt to their changing environments and learn what’s necessary to survive and thrive in these settings.
For example, a robot’s neural network could draw from CliffsNotes with “genetic” instructions for how to be aware of its own body or learn to adjust its movements. And other, different sets of CliffsNotes may imbue it with the basics of physical safety or the fundamentals of speech.
At the moment, Zador is working on algorithms that are trying to mimic neuronal blueprints for very simple organisms—such as earthworms, which have only 302 neurons and about 7000 synapses compared to the millions we have. That’s how evolution worked, too—expanding the brains from simple creatures to more complex to the Homo Sapiens. But if it took millions of years to arrive at modern humans, how long would it take scientists to forge a robot with human intelligence? That’s a billion-dollar question. Yet, Zador is optimistic. “My hypotheses is that if you can build simple organisms that can interact with the world, then the higher level functions will not be nearly as challenging as they currently are.”
Lina Zeldovich has written about science, medicine and technology for Popular Science, Smithsonian, National Geographic, Scientific American, Reader’s Digest, the New York Times and other major national and international publications. A Columbia J-School alumna, she has won several awards for her stories, including the ASJA Crisis Coverage Award for Covid reporting, and has been a contributing editor at Nautilus Magazine. In 2021, Zeldovich released her first book, The Other Dark Matter, published by the University of Chicago Press, about the science and business of turning waste into wealth and health. You can find her on http://linazeldovich.com/ and @linazeldovich.
Podcast: Wellness chatbots and meditation pods with Deepak Chopra
Over the last few decades, perhaps no one has impacted healthy lifestyles more than Deepak Chopra. While several of his theories and recommendations have been criticized by prominent members of the scientific community, he has helped bring meditation, yoga and other practices for well-being into the mainstream in ways that benefit the health of vast numbers of people every day. His work has led many to accept new ways of thinking about alternative medicine, the power of mind over body, and the malleability of the aging process.
His impact is such that it's been observed our culture no longer recognizes him as a human being but as a pervasive symbol of new-agey personal health and spiritual growth. Last week, I had a chance to confirm that Chopra is, in fact, a human being – and deserving of his icon status – when I talked with him for the Leaps.org podcast. He relayed ideas that were wise and ancient, yet highly relevant to our world today, with the fluidity and ease of someone discussing the weather. Showing no signs of slowing down at age 76, he described his prolific work, including the publication of two books in the past year and a range of technologies he’s developing, including a meditation app, meditation pods for the workplace, and a chatbot for mental health called Piwi.
Take a listen and get inspired to do some meditation and deep thinking on the future of health. As Chopra told me, “If you don’t have time to meditate once per day, you probably need to meditate twice per day.”
Highlights:
2:10: Chopra talks about meditation broadly and meditation pods, including the ones made by OpenSeed for meditation in the workplace.
6:10: The drawbacks of quick fixes like drugs for mental health.
10:30: The benefits of group meditation versus individual meditation.
14:35: What is a "metahuman" and how to become one.
19:40: The difference between the conditioned mind and the mind that's infinitely creative.
22:48: How Chopra's views of free will differ from the views of many neuroscientists.
28:04: Thinking Fast and Slow, and the role of intuition.
31:20: Athletic and creative geniuses.
32:43: The nature of fundamental truth.
34:00: Meditation for kids.
37:12: Never alone.Love and how AI chatbots can support mental health.
42:30: Extending lifespan, gene editing and lifestyle.
46:05: Chopra's mentor in living a long good life (and my mentor).
47:45: The power of yoga.
Links:
- OpenSeed meditation pods for people to meditate at work (Chopra is an advisor to OpenSeed).
- Chopra's book from 2021, Metahuman: Unleash Your Infinite Potential
- Chopra's book from 2022, Abundance: The Inner Path to Wealth
- NeverAlone.Love, Chopra's collaboration of businesses, policy makers, mental health professionals and others to raise awareness about mental health, advance scientific research and "create a global technology platform to democratize access to resources."
- The Piwi chatbot for mental health
- The Chopra Meditation & Well-Being App for people of all ages
- Only 1.6 percent of U.S. children meditate, according to the National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health